Filter and export

Publications

1 Publication matching the given criteria: (Clear all filters)
Project: Task Force COVID-19 Leipzig1
On the Parametrization of Epidemiologic Models-Lessons from Modelling COVID-19 Epidemic.
Genetical Statistics and Systems Biology, Task Force COVID-19 Leipzig

Abstract (Expand)

Numerous prediction models of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic were proposed in the past. Unknown parameters of these models are often estimated based on observational data. However, lag in case-reporting, changing … testing policy or incompleteness of data lead to biased estimates. Moreover, parametrization is time-dependent due to changing age-structures, emerging virus variants, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccination programs. To cover these aspects, we propose a principled approach to parametrize a SIR-type epidemiologic model by embedding it as a hidden layer into an input-output non-linear dynamical system (IO-NLDS). Observable data are coupled to hidden states of the model by appropriate data models considering possible biases of the data. This includes data issues such as known delays or biases in reporting. We estimate model parameters including their time-dependence by a Bayesian knowledge synthesis process considering parameter ranges derived from external studies as prior information. We applied this approach on a specific SIR-type model and data of Germany and Saxony demonstrating good prediction performances. Our approach can estimate and compare the relative effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions and provide scenarios of the future course of the epidemic under specified conditions. It can be translated to other data sets, i.e., other countries and other SIR-type models.

Authors: Y. Kheifetz, H. Kirsten, M. Scholz

Date Published: 2nd Jul 2022

Publication Type: Journal article

Human Diseases: COVID-19

Navigate

Health Atlas - Local Data Hub/Leipzig

The Health Atlas - Local Data Hub/Leipzig is an alliance of medical ontologists, medical systems biologists and clinical trials groups to design and implement a multi-functional and quality-assured atlas. It provides models, data and metadata on specific use cases from medical research fields.

Registered Repository

re3data.org Badge
Powered by
 (v.1.13.0-master)
Health Atlas | Funding and Programmes | Credits | Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy | Imprint
Copyright © 2008 - 2021 The University of Manchester and HITS gGmbH
Institute for Medical Informatics, Statistics and Epidemiology, University of Leipzig

By continuing to use this site you agree to the use of cookies